Report No. 171 – Uncertainties in the Estimation of Radiation Risks and Probability of Disease Causation (2012)

Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of sureness or confidence in the results of measurements, the predictions of models or the conclusions of investigations. Uncertainty can arise from random (stochastic) variability or from the absence of relevant information or knowledge. Uncertainty analysis has become increasingly sophisticated and new methods are being developed and becoming available. The issue of uncertainty in estimation of radiation-induced risks of cancer, noncancer diseases, and heritable genetic effects analyzed in this Report is of great importance in evaluating the effects of ionizing radiation on human health, in decisions involving the safe use of ionizing radiation, in addressing public controversy and in the calculation of the probability of disease causation (assigned share) used in evaluating claims for compensation of workers who developed cancer after being exposed to radiation.

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Table of Contents
Preface